Bitcoin (BTC) has bot wide-ranging overheen the past week after a strong pullback. The market cap now stands at US$235 billion on US$6.46 billion te volume overheen the past 24 hours. Volume has slowed broadly amongst the cryptocurrency markets, which is most likely due the holiday season.
BTC transactions vanaf day have declined since the peak around 490,000. This trend has bot matched through Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin Specie (BCH), and Litecoin (LTC). ETH resumes to process the highest number of transactions vanaf day, almost dual that of BTC. However, the average value of a BTC transaction is overheen 10x greater than ETH (not shown below).
There are presently 175,00 unconfirmed transactions te the bitcoin mempool, down from overheen 250,000 just a few days ago. Transactions usually see an uptick during downwards price movements, spil wasgoed the case from the 17th to the 22nd of December. This only compounded the problem of the existing backlog. “Spam” transactions also proceed to plague the network. One such “spam attack” wasgoed caught live and recorded.
SegWit, which reduces the size of each transaction and therefore makes the transaction cheaper, proceeds to have around 10% adoption. Key bottlenecks ter the ecosystem like the major exchanges proceed to develop, or disregard, SegWit integration. Coinbase/GDAX has promised SegWit addresses sometime ter 2018.
Presently, SegWit uses the P2SH address format which is compatible with older clients. A BIP, very first introduced on the 20th of March, is gaining traction to stir SegWit towards native addresses. BIP 173, created by Peter Wuille and Greg Maxwell of Blockstream, introduces the Bech32 address format which is more efficient and secure, and not case sensitive.
Ter the meantime, difficulty resumes to climb. This indicates that extra hashing power is being added to the BTC network. Block times before each difficulty adjustment have benefited from this, holding below Ten minutes on average overheen the past week. According to BTC.com, the next difficulty adjustment will be a 5% increase and is set to occur te three days. This suggests that miners proceed to believe BTC is amongst the most profitable coins to mine, spil hash rate has not moved elsewhere.
Exchange traded volume has bot led by the US Dollar (USD) and Japanese Yen (JPY) pairs. The Tether (USDT) pair, which is pegged to $1, has seen an increase ter volume recently spil traders seek safe toevluchthaven from declining BTC prices.
Korean Won (KRW) trading volume and price are down sharply amidst reports that regulatory bods are looking to reign ter anonymous trading accounts. The KRW markets have bot trading at almost $4000 above USD markets, which suggests difficult or unlikely arbitrage opportunities.
The minister of the Office for Government Policy Coordination, Hong Nam-ki, said on Thursday that the Korean government is banning the use of anonymous virtual accounts ter cryptocurrency transactions spil part of efforts to curb speculation. Thesis accounts are widely used ter the Korean financial industry.
Only real-name canap accounts and matching accounts at virtual currency exchanges will be used for deposits and withdrawals te the future. Reuters reported that this spil an outright verbod on trading yesterday, which caused a ongezouten and instantaneous sell off. The Fresh York Times straks picked up the story spil well.
When determining the progress of a trend, the Ichimoku Cloud, Moving Averages, and Pitchforks are excellent resources for entry and uitgang signals.
On the weekly chart, the Ichimoku Cloud signals proceed to scream bullish momentum. The Cloud uses a moving-average-type system with dynamic support and resistance to make projections of key zones, spil well spil capturing 80% of any given trend. Spil long spil the price remains above the Cloud, sentiment remains bullish. Price te the Cloud indicates a neutral trend, and below the Cloud indicates a bearish trend.
When the Tenkan (blue) is overheen the Kijun (crimson) sentiment is bullish, spil shown below. When the Kijun is overheen the Tenkan sentiment is bearish. When the Lagging Span (dark green) is above the Cloud the current price sentiment is bullish, spil shown below. When the Lagging Span is below the Cloud the current price sentiment is bearish.
The best entry signals when using this indicator occur when the trend is visible, but 1 or Two of the signals have yet to become confluent on a higher timeframe trend.
The latest pullback to US$11,000 found support at the Tenkan. The next support down is the Kijun at US$11,000. Price has bounced at or near the Kijun six times te the current trend. The Cloud proceeds to vertoning a skinny upward slope, the mark of a healthy trend. A thick Cloud, which last occurred late te 2015, indicates a rangebound price with a high likelihood of reversal.
Additionally, the price is light years away from either the 50 or 200 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), both of which are at a 45 degree angle. Thesis moving averages are commonly used to determine the status of the trend. When a swifter moving average is above a slower moving average, the trend is bullish, and vice versa.
Hastening of the trend is best depicted with the use of a parabola, spil popularized by ParabolicTrav recently on twitter. The slope of the trend on a logarithmic chart has gotten steeper and steeper overheen the past year. Typically, thesis patterns end after four touches of support with a massive reversal which violates the curved support. BTC is presently flirting with this zone.
The Pitchfork, which uses three anchor points to predict a price channel with diagonal potential reversal zones, shows price vacillating within the heart of the trend (green). A pauze to the lower diagonal support will represent a strong buy signal based on the year long trend, most of which has bot held below the median line (crimson).
On the daily chart, the Ichimoku Cloud also resumes to voorstelling bullish signals with several Kijun bounces. A candle close below the Kijun would signal a significant pullback, likely below the US$11,000 support. Thesis Kijun violates have led to an average of a 17.75% druppel on the four occasions they have occurred this year, which would bring the price to around US$Ten,400.
On this same timeframe, since the bullish cross of the 50/200EMA on the daily chart ter September 2015 the price has largely remained above the 50EMA. A pauze of the 50EMA would likely reach for the 200EMA (yellow), presently US$7,300. While unlikely at the uur based on current price structure, it’s significant to prepare a roadmap for all possibilities.
On the four hour chart, the 50/200EMAs have crossed and recrossed four times this year, all resulting ter a thrust higher after reaching the 850EMA, presently at US$8,500. If the 200 and 50 EMA cross on this timeframe, I’d expect the same to occur ter this example.
The Cloud signals are mixed te this timeframe. The Cloud is bearish, the price is below Cloud, the TK cross is bullish, and the lagging span is below price and Cloud. A long entry signal of moderate position size would be suitable if the price rises above the Cloud, a Kumo breakout. If the price is above Cloud with a bullish Cloud spil well the likelihood of bullish continuation is significantly greater.
Bitcoin has succesnummer several fresh all time highs overheen the course of 2018. The asset wasgoed at one point up overheen 1800%. Despite news events which pummeled the price, BTC has proven that it remains more antifragile now than it has everzwijn bot. Mainstream adoption will proceed to rise into 2018 with Bitcoin-backed ETFs shortly on the horizon.
Technicals ter the near term suggest a crucial week ahead te a historically bearish month for Bitcoin. The likely support for any dip remains inbetween US$8,500-$Ten,500. Otherwise, fresh highs to beyond US$30,000 are reasonable based on the current trend.